Next indexation: STATEC expects it in Q2 2027, then in 2028
On 4 November 2026 STATEC published its new inflation forecasts. In its central scenario, the next +2.5% index tranche would fall in the second quarter of 2027, followed by another in the second quarter of 2028. There will therefore be no tranche in 2026: the last one was on 1 June 2026.
What the tranche would change on your salary
An index tranche automatically raises all gross salaries, pensions and most social benefits by 2.5%. Examples based on current salaries:
| Current gross salary | After the tranche | Monthly increase |
|---|---|---|
| EUR 2,771.33 (unskilled minimum wage) | EUR 2,840.61 | +EUR 69.28 |
| EUR 3,000 | EUR 3,075 | +EUR 75 |
| EUR 5,000 | EUR 5,125 | +EUR 125 |
| EUR 8,000 | EUR 8,200 | +EUR 200 |
For the minimum wage, the tranche comes on top of the structural +3.8% increase planned for 1 January 2027. The unskilled minimum wage would thus rise from about EUR 2,876.64 in January to about EUR 2,948.56 after the tranche (official amounts to be confirmed). To see the effect on your net pay, use our raise simulator.
Three scenarios, a tranche in the first half of 2027 in every case
| Scenario | Inflation 2027 | Inflation 2028 | Expected tranches |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central | 2.5% | 2.5% | Q2 2027, Q2 2028 |
| High (Brent at $104 in 2027) | 2.9% | 3.0% | Q1 2027, Q1 2028 |
| Low (Brent at $75 in 2027) | 2.0% | 2.7% | Q2 2027, Q3 2028 |
These are forecasts, not decisions: the tranche is triggered when the six-month average of the price index reaches the trigger threshold. Based on the October index, only +0.47% remains. Our indexation counter tracks this gap every month.
Energy and extended support measures
Inflation stood at 2.7% in October 2026, after 2.9% in September. Energy alone accounts for about one point of it, against the backdrop of the conflict between the United States and Iran: Brent averaged 108 dollars in October, heating oil cost EUR 1.39/l and diesel EUR 2.05/l.
On 29 October, the Tripartite follow-up committee extended the Resilienzpak support measures: until 31 December 2027 for electricity, gas and heating oil, and until the end of February 2027 for motor fuels. According to STATEC, this lowers 2027 inflation by almost 0.7 points and avoids a second tranche in 2027. The effect is only postponed: the end of the measures will push prices up in March 2027 (fuels) and in January 2028 (other energy).
Volatile inflation in early 2027
STATEC expects inflation above 3% in January and February 2027 (3.5% and 3.4%), then a temporary dip towards 1.7% in April due to base effects. Beyond energy, services would take over (+3.2% in 2027, +3.5% in 2028), as would food (+3.0% in 2027).
Sources: STATEC, inflation forecasts of 4 November 2026 · lesfrontaliers.lu